JuicyTalk
Goalscorer markets shift football betting from team outcomes to individual performance.
Instead of asking who wins, you are asking which player finds the net.
That specificity creates higher odds than match result betting, and a specific set of research inputs that are genuinely different from the form and xG analysis that drives team-level markets.
There are three main goalscorer markets:
- First Goalscorer (who scores the opening goal of the match),
- Anytime Goalscorer (whether a player scores at any point),
- and Last Goalscorer (who scores the final goal).
Each has different odds, different hit rates, and different settlement rules that matter a great deal when your player comes on as a substitute.
| At a Glance |
| Anytime Goalscorer: Player scores at least once in 90 mins. Most accessible odds. Best hit rate of the three. |
| First Goalscorer: Player scores the opening goal. Odds typically 3-4x higher than anytime for the same player. |
| Last Goalscorer: Player scores the final goal. Similar odds to first goalscorer. Own goals don’t count. |
| Non-starter rule: Most bookmakers void bets on players who do not take part in the match. |
| First Goalscorer non-starter: Bets on players who come on after the first goal is scored are typically voided. |
| Own goals: Own goals do not count for settlement in any goalscorer market at most bookmakers. |
| Key research tools: Understat.com (xG), PremierLeague.com (shots, touches in box), FBref.com (advanced stats) |
| Responsible gambling: GambleAware: begambleaware.org | NCPG (US): 1-800-522-4700 |
Anytime Goalscorer
The Anytime Goalscorer market is the most accessible of the three.
The player you pick needs to score once at any point during 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It does not matter when they score. Whether it’s 1st minute or 90th plus, or what the final result is, one goal is all that takes for this bet to be settled.
A striker who scores in 40% of their Premier League appearances might be priced at around 2.50-3.00 for anytime goalscorer in a favourable fixture. That 40% conversion rate means the implied probability in the odds (40% at 2.50) is broadly fair.
The value, if it exists, comes from identifying specific fixture contexts where the bookmaker has underpriced the player’s scoring probability.
Settlement Rules to Know
- The player must take part in the match. If they do not play at all, the bet is void and your stake is returned.
- Substitutes count too, and a player who comes on in the 89th minute and scores in stoppage time settles the anytime bet as a winner.
- Own goals do not count for settlement. If the match ends 1-0 via an own goal, all anytime goalscorer bets lose.
- Extra time does not count at most bookmakers. Check individual terms for cup competitions.
First Goalscorer
First Goalscorer requires your player to score before anyone else in the match.
The odds are significantly higher because the specific combination of ‘this player scores’ and ‘scores first’ is considerably less likely than the player scoring at any point.
A striker with a 40% anytime scoring rate might score first in roughly 10-12% of matches, with the anytime probability divided by the average number of goals in a typical match.
First Goalscorer odds for that player might sit at 6.00-8.00 rather than 2.50.
The Non-Starter Rule for First Goalscorer
The First Goalscorer non-starter rule is stricter than for anytime markets. Most major bookmakers void First Goalscorer bets on players who:
- Do not take part in the match at all, or
- Enter the pitch as a substitute after the first goal has already been scored
This means a player who starts on the bench, comes on at 2-0 down in the 55th minute, and scores in the 70th minute does NOT win your First Goalscorer bet because they were not on the pitch when the first goal was scored. Your bet is voided, and the stake returned.
This is one of the most misunderstood settlement rules in football betting. Check the specific bookmaker terms before placing.
| Scenario | First Goalscorer | Last Goalscorer | Anytime |
| Player starts, scores 1st goal | Win | Depends on subsequent goals | Win |
| Player starts, scores 2nd goal (not first or last) | Lose | Lose | Win |
| Player starts, doesn’t score | Lose | Lose | Lose |
| Player doesn’t play at all | Void (stake returned) | Void | Void |
| Player subs on before 1st goal, scores later | Win | Depends | Win |
| Player subs on after 1st goal, scores last goal | Void (not on at 1st goal) | Win | Win |
| Match ends 0-0 | Lose (all first gsc bets lose) | Lose | Lose |
Last Goalscorer
Last Goalscorer requires your player to score the final goal of the match.
The odds are similar to First Goalscorer but slightly lower in most cases because a player who scores late is often in a team that is chasing the game, and that tactical context is somewhat more predictable than who scores first.
Settlement quirk: if the last goal of the match is an own goal, the own goal is disregarded and the previous goal’s scorer is used for settlement.
A match that ends 2-1 where the final goal was an own goal settles Last Goalscorer on the scorer of the 1-1 equaliser.
Substitutes count fully for Last Goalscorer. There is no restriction on players who enter after the first goal.
How to Research a Goalscorer Bet
The research question for goalscorer markets is different from team-level research.
You are assessing an individual player’s likelihood of scoring against a specific opponent, in a specific role, in a specific tactical context.
Five Key Inputs
- Shots per 90 and shots on target per 90. A player taking 3+ shots per 90 in recent matches is creating more scoring opportunities than one averaging 0.8 shots. PremierLeague.com and FBref.com publish this data.
- xG per 90. Expected goals per 90 minutes measures the quality of chances, not just the volume. A player generating 0.6 xG per 90 in good positions is a stronger anytime bet than one generating 0.6 xG from speculative long-range efforts.
- Touches in the box. Players with high box-entry rates are more likely to generate close-range chances. Understat.com and FBref.com track this.
- Penalty duty. A penalty taker has an additional scoring route that a non-penalty taker does not. In a match where penalties are likely (against a team that concedes a high penalty rate), this matters.
- Opponent defensive quality and height of defensive line. A player whose scoring style depends on running in behind needs an opponent who plays a high line. The same player against a deep, compact defence may generate half the chances.
| Miloš’s Rule on Goalscorer Research I only back an anytime goalscorer when I can articulate a specific, data-grounded reason why this player scores in this fixture at a higher rate than the odds imply. Not ‘they are good’ or ‘they have been on form.’ A specific tactical mismatch. A penalty taker facing a high-foul-rate side. A winger facing a vulnerable full-back. Without that specificity, the market margin is working against you. |
Goalscorer Variants: Scorecast, Wincast, Multiscorer
| Market | How It Works |
| Anytime Goalscorer | Player scores once at any point in 90 mins. Most accessible odds. |
| First Goalscorer | Player scores the opening goal. Higher odds, stricter non-starter rules. |
| Last Goalscorer | Player scores the final goal. Own goals disregarded. |
| Multiscorer (2+ goals) | Player scores two or more goals in the match. Higher odds than anytime. |
| Scorecast | Player scores first AND specific correct score. Very high odds, very high margin. Entertainment bet. |
| Wincast | Player scores anytime AND team wins. Combined market. Lower odds than Scorecast. |
| Team first goalscorer | Which team scores first. Two-outcome market, no specific player. |
Responsible Gambling
Set a budget before you start. Track every bet. If gambling is causing financial or personal stress:
Frequently Asked Questions
What is anytime goalscorer betting?
Anytime Goalscorer is a football bet where your chosen player needs to score at least once during 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It does not matter when they score or what the final result is. If the player does not take part in the match at all, the bet is voided.
What happens to a First Goalscorer bet if my player doesn’t start?
It depends when they enter the match. If they come on as a substitute before the first goal is scored, your bet remains active. If they come on after the first goal has already been scored, the bet is voided and your stake returned. If they do not play at all, the bet is voided.
Do own goals count for goalscorer betting?
No. Own goals are disregarded in all goalscorer markets at most bookmakers. For Last Goalscorer specifically, if the final goal is an own goal, settlement defaults to whoever scored the previous goal.
What is a Scorecast bet?
A Scorecast combines First Goalscorer with a correct score prediction in a single bet. Both the player who scores first and the exact final scoreline must be correct. The odds are very high because both events must land — the bookmaker margin is correspondingly very high.
How do I research an anytime goalscorer bet?
Focus on shots per 90, xG per 90, touches in the box, and penalty duty from data sources like FBref.com and Understat.com. Then assess the specific fixture context: the opposition’s defensive quality, whether they play a high line, and whether the tactical matchup suits the player’s scoring style.
What is the difference between First and Anytime Goalscorer odds?
First Goalscorer odds are typically three to four times higher than Anytime Goalscorer for the same player. A striker with a 40% anytime scoring rate might be priced at 2.50 for anytime and 6.00-8.00 for first goalscorer, because scoring first requires both scoring and doing so before any other player in the match.
