From a studio’s perspective, releasing Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part 3 on the same day is obviously a bad idea. For audiences, that kind of choice can be exciting, but tentpole movies cost a great deal of money to make, and are relied upon to earn even more. When they work, they can fund a studio’s entire slate; when they fail, they can push a company to bankruptcy. They’re often scheduled as apart from each other as distributors can manage, to avoid them eating into each other’s opportunities.

Barbie and Oppenheimer proved Hollywood shouldn’t always be afraid of a little competition, but those films had complementary audiences. The Barbenheimer phenomenon benefitted both movies because people who might usually have gone to only one of them also saw the other. Doomsday and Dune have a ton of overlap, such that cannibalizing each other is pretty much inevitable. Even if one movie “wins” the weekend, the most likely outcome is they both end up losing.

But Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part 3 both remain scheduled to release on December 18, 2026, and neither Disney nor Warner Bros. currently plan to move their film. One of them should – and quickly. If they don’t, they risk turning Dunesday into a much bigger story than it currently is, and changing dates will go from looking smart to admitting defeat.

Both Movies Are Right To Want This Release Date

Being reluctant to move off December 18 is understandable. That pre-Christmas slot, occupied this year by Avatar: Fire & Ash, is a great time to open a blockbuster, especially a good one. With the right word-of-mouth, its momentum can carry it right through the holidays and into the new year.

Doomsday, the bigger dog in this fight, is hoping to repeat the magic of Spider-Man: No Way Home, which opened that week in 2021. At over $1.9 billion, it remains Marvel’s biggest post-Endgame success by a significant margin, and ranks seventh all-time in worldwide box office. Disney also currently plans to release its next two Avengers movies in that slot in consecutive years, with Secret Wars currently scheduled for December 17, 2027, so moving would disrupt that symmetry.

Dune 3, however, was there first. After Dune and Dune: Part 2 saw Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi series trend upward, WB surely hope this third installment will become a blockbuster worthy of being the big end-of-year studio movie. And it may have the premium screens advantage. While both Dune: Part 3 and Avengers: Doomsday are listed as coming to IMAX screens in 2026, only the former was actually shot with their cameras, and, as Barbenheimer proved, the company will side with adopters of their technology when push comes to shove.

For those reasons, these two studios might be inclined to dig in their heels. But if they continue on that path, and the press continues to make it a story, people might realize just how symbolic Dunesday could be.

The Closer Dunesday Gets, The More It Looks Like A Defining Moment For Hollywood

The MCU is grappling with a narrative of decline. After ruling the movie world in the 2010s, the franchise has seen its share of critical and/or financial disappointments over the last few years, to the extent that many wonder whether general audiences have moved on from superheroes. Marvel Studios will be looking to change the story, and they’re throwing everything they have at 2026.

On top of working with Sony on their new Spider-Man film, likely Tom Holland’s last of that series, Avengers: Doomsday is being positioned as an epic reunion event. The Russo brothers are back to direct, while Robert Downey, Jr. will step into the role of Doctor Doom, the franchise’s new big bad. Along with several key MCU teams, the film will feature members of the 2000s X-Men cast, and the first Avengers: Doomsday trailer confirmed Chris Evans is unretiring Steve Rogers. The hope, it seems, is that revisiting the glory days of 2019 will lure back viewers who didn’t show up for Thunderbolts* or The Fantastic Four: First Steps this year.

Villeneuve’s Dune: Part 3 is a stark contrast. Despite being based on a decades-old book series, as a franchise, it feels new, especially now that Dune Messiah is receiving its first big-screen adaptation. It’s auteur-driven and can tap into that growing strand of film fandom around a movie’s intended format that boosted Oppenheimer and Sinners. It’s associated with stunning visual craftsmanship, compared to the VFX critiques that have dogged Marvel post-pandemic. And, thanks especially to Dune: Part 2, it’s framed as a who’s-who of young Hollywood talent (with Anya Taylor-Joy and Robert Pattinson joining in this time).

This has all the makings of a great story, and if Hollywood lets it keep growing, Dunesday could become a pivotal moment for the industry. Either Marvel and IP nostalgia reassert themselves as the dominant forces in movies today, or audiences choose a blockbuster that’s trying to do something new, and thus prove they have truly moved on from the MCU. That narrative has yet to fully develop, but the social media chatter around reactions to the first Doomsday trailer vs. the full-length The Odyssey trailer suggest the conditions are there.

The time to back away from this confrontation without losing face is limited. If either studio would really consider moving their film, they should act now, or risk these being the stakes of their decision.