Does Marty Supreme's Success Make Timothée Chalamet The Oscar Frontrunner?

Marty Supreme‘s best chance for an Oscar lies with Timothée Chalamet. Directed by Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme is a chaotic firecracker of a film, a non-stop series of desperate swings from Marty Mauser as he seeks out his dream of becoming a star in the world of table tennis.

It’s a great film, with strong reviews and an impressive early box office for A24. It’s also cemented Timothée Chalamet as one of this year’s biggest prospective nominees for Best Actor at the upcoming 98th Academy Awards. However, with stiff competition also on the hunt for the Oscar, Chalamet’s victory is assured yet.

Timothée Chalamet Delivers An Oscar Worthy Performance In Marty Supreme

Timothée Chalamet is expected to earn his third Academy Award nomination for Best Actor with Marty Supreme, following his prior nominations in 2018 for Call Me by Your Name and 2025 for A Complete Unknown. While both of those performances were good, Marty Supreme is something else entirely.

Marty Mauser is a great concept, a character whose charms just barely hide his desperation, and is thoughtless but with just enough sympathetic passion and humanity to make him a compelling protagonist. It’s a role that doesn’t feel like it could work with anyone else delivering the performance, which is a perk in the race.

The role funnels the actor’s natural charisma and comedic talents into the ultimate example of a hustler on the verge of success (and a breakdown). It’s the right balance of compelling, cruel, and comedic to draw viewers in with relative ease, but prickly and singular enough to stand out from other similar roles.

Given his talents and previous nominations, it’s clear that the Academy respects the actor. Coupled with the movie’s success for A24, it would be frankly shocking to see Chalamet snubbed for a nomination. However, a nomination isn’t necessarily a win, and his competition could easily snag the trophy instead.

What Are Timothée Chalamet’s Oscar Chances?

Timothee Chalamet smiling with a ping pong paddle as Marty in Marty Supreme

At the time of writing, Timothée Chalamet is considered one of the frontrunners for the Best Actor award at the 98th Academy Awards. Given his previous nominations, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Academy decide he’s earned one. While his previous two nominations also came in tough years, they were knocked back somewhat by his competition.

Gary Oldman won in 2018 for Darkest Hour, feeling more like a career-wide recognition that the young nominee couldn’t match. Similarly, Chalamet’s nomination for A Complete Unknown felt more in line with typical biopic nominations, as opposed to the emotionally epic and searing performance from Adrian Brody in The Brutalist that struck a chord with voters.

By contrast, Chalamet’s chances are improved significantly at the 98th Academy Awards due to the unique nature of his performance, his previous losses proving he’s not a flash in the pan, and the critical success of the film. However, there are other narratives that could continue to grow in the award season.

Leonardo DiCaprio has only won one Best Actor award. The Academy could reward his overall career for his turn in One Battle After Another. In a similar vein, Michael B. Jordan could benefit from Sinners taking the forefront of the Oscars conversation, especially if the Academy decides that two award-worthy performances can push him over the edge.

While Magner Moura, Ethan Hawke, Joel Edgerton, Dwayne Johnson, Jesse Plemons, and Jeremy Allen White are also still very much in the nomination race, the early award momentum seems to be building behind Chalamet, DiCaprio, and Jordan. All three of them are great in their respective films, and each feels deserving of the award.

However, while DiCaprio and Jordan would benefit from their films generating larger sweeps across other categories, Chalamet may actually benefit from being the Academy’s only major way to honor Marty Supreme. Although the overall film is great and is doing very good numbers for A24, it’s not expected to have much of a chance of unseating other frontrunners.

On top of Chalamet being a bona fide movie star in an era where that concept has largely fallen by the wayside, the Academy may seek to cement his place as the heir apparent to stars like Leonardo DiCaprio by giving him his first trophy. There’s a lot of award season still left to get through, though.

It’s easily possible for either DiCaprio, Jordan, or another actor to pull ahead thanks to other award ceremonies. Voters may even still surprise the industry with a darkhose win. However, Chalamet remains the best positioned to snag an Oscar at this junction, especially if Marty Supreme continues to be a box office draw.