Knives Out: Wake Up Dead Man seems like a likely contender at the Oscars. The third Knives Out film, Wake Up Dead Man is quietly the most ambiguous entry in the trilogy. It’s just as charming and entertaining as the previous two movies, but with a spiritual side that complements the movie’s social satire.

Given the previous two films’ success and the critical raves for Wake Up Dead Man, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Rian Johnson’s screenplay nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay. It could even finally earn him a win after two prior nominations. However, there are a few crucial challenges standing in the way of the film’s potential Oscar success.

Knives Out: Wake Up Dead Man Has A Terrific Script That Will Likely Get An Oscar Nomination

Knives Out: Wake Up Dead Man is a morally complex and deeply compelling film that benefits from one of Rian Johnson’s best scripts, making him a likely nominee for Best Adapted Screenplay. Over the course of his career, Rian Johnson has proven to be an inventive and tonally experimental filmmaker.

While he’s a terrific director, he’s also proven to be supremely gifted at subverting audience expectations to deliver thematically powerful and deeply entertaining films. The likes of Brick, The Brothers Bloom, Looper, and Star Wars: The Last Jedi all work best when exploring social constructs and twisting character motivations into unlikely directions.

Johnson’s never been better than in the Knives Out films, which highlight his talent for mystery narratives while never taking away from his clear view on the importance of character beats and dynamics. Wake Up Dead Man is just as much about spirituality and faith as it is about his typical tropes focused on male ego and social satire.

There’s a quiet edge to Wake Up Dead Man that makes it perfectly suited for the times, while the clear focus on the greater questions about faith, personal responsibility, and using religion as a shield instead of a weapon gives it a timeless quality. It’s one of those rare scripts that’s funny, scary, heartbreaking, and thought-provoking all at once.

While the tight focus of the first Knives Out might make it a leaner script, Wake Up Dead Man builds on the social satire of that film to deliver a cutting rebuke on bad-faith religion while not downplaying faith. That it does this while delivering a tight mystery that keeps getting more complex without becoming confusing is very impressive.

Can Wake Up Dead Man Break Rian Johnson’s Oscars Nomination Streak?

Given that the Academy was supportive of Rian Johnson’s other Knives Out screenplays, it would be shocking for Wake Up Dead Man not to earn a nomination. It’s definitely earned it, with the kind of character pathos and deeper thematic meaning that appeals to most Academy voters — along with a unique cheekiness that speaks to Johnson as a singular talent.

The bigger question is whether or not Wake Up Dead Man will be able to actually win the award. The competition is always stiff in the screenplay categories, with the other projected nominees also looking to mine that same satirical worldview while maintaining a clear humanity at the core of the story.

Notably, if the film does earn a nomination, this will be the filmmaker’s third shot at a screenplay award. The Academy could look at Johnson’s work on the film (as well as his previous two losses) and decide it’s time to honor the filmmaker. However, Wake Up Dead Man faces some steep hurdles to actually earn a victory.

Other potential nominees in the category include Bugonia and No Other Choice, both of which have similar elements of social satire at the core of their plots and could subsequently split the vote. Train Dream‘s growing momentum could be rewarded with a screenplay award. Frankenstein is from Guillermo del Toro, whom the Academy has repeatedly shown an affinity towards.

The two expected frontrunners for Best Picture, One Battle After Another and Hamnet, are also likely contenders in the category. If either of them picks up specific momentum and moves towards a general sweep of the 98th Academy Awards, then Adapted Screenplay seems to be a likely win for that movie.

One Battle After Another has a lot of the same award-season narrative that would benefit Wake Up Dead Man. Johnson hasn’t won an Oscar yet, but neither has Paul Thomas Anderson. Both films are timely and timeless social satires with a lot to say about the world, albeit with a sense of humor and a clear eye on characters.

It would be terrific if Johnson’s latest Knives Out film was able to pull off the upset and win Best Adapted Screenplay. It’s a strong story, highlighting how Knives Out stands out as one of the best modern film franchises. However, while a nomination for Wake Up Dead Man seems likely, an Oscar win might be a different story.