World Cup Could Fuel Coinbase Prediction Markets: Bernstein

The 2026 FIFA World Cup could mark a breakout moment for prediction markets, with Coinbase emerging as one of the biggest winners, according to a new research report from Bernstein.

Published Thursday, the Bernstein analysts estimate the expanded tournament will generate more than $3 billion in incremental sports betting handle and $5 billion to $10 billion in additional consumer prediction market volume, as 104 matches transform what is typically the slowest period for online sports betting.

FIFA expects the month-long tournament to attract roughly 6 billion viewers worldwide, up from an estimated 5 billion during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Matches are scheduled to start today.

Bernstein said Coinbase has established itself as a major player in the sector, surpassing $100 million in annualized prediction market revenue in March, just months after launching the product.

As Cointelegraph reported, the crypto exchange rolled out prediction markets nationwide through a partnership with Kalshi, allowing users in all 50 US states to trade event contracts tied to sports, politics, culture and other real-world outcomes.

Robinhood is also expected to benefit from the tournament. Bernstein noted that the brokerage is using the event to launch Rothera, its own US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-licensed exchange and clearinghouse for prediction markets.

“[W]e expect prediction markets to be the biggest driver of incremental revenue for Robinhood,” the analysts wrote, forecasting roughly $586 million in prediction market revenue for 2026.

Bernstein expects the FIFA World Cup to transform the slowest months for online sports betting into a major driver of betting and prediction market volumes. Source: Bernstein

Sports emerge as prediction markets’ biggest growth driver

Prediction markets have become one of crypto’s fastest-growing use cases, expanding even as the broader digital asset market has cooled.

An April report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket found that monthly prediction market trading volume reached nearly $26 billion, with retail traders accounting for more than 80% of users.

Prediction market volumes have grown considerably since late 2025. Source: Bitget Wallet

The report also pointed to a structural shift in user behavior. Rather than attracting activity around one-off events such as elections, prediction markets are increasingly retaining users across recurring categories, with sports emerging as the largest segment.

In March alone, sports betting accounted for more than 39% of prediction market volumes, according to Bitget Wallet and Polygon.

The CFTC on Wednesday issued draft rules for prediction markets signaling that sports event contracts are generally not contrary to the public interest even though federal law classifies them as “gaming.”

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