Turkey and Italy will both be seeking their first points of the new UEFA Nations League campaign when they meet in Bursa on Monday evening.

After opening defeats to France and Belgium respectively, the two nations already find themselves playing catch-up in Group A1, where every result could prove crucial in the battle to reach the quarter-finals or avoid relegation trouble.

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 8/5

Bookmaker: Bovada

Turkey

Turkey’s introduction to League A football ended in disappointment, but there were still positives for Vincenzo Montella to take from their performance against France.

Facing a talented French side under new manager Zinedine Zidane, the Crescent-Stars remained competitive for long periods and frustrated their opponents for almost an hour before Kylian Mbappe finally broke the deadlock. Turkey responded well and created chances of their own, but their hopes were effectively ended when goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir was sent off following a VAR review.

The result continued a difficult run that stretches back to the World Cup, where Turkey were eliminated in the group stage after defeats to Austria and Paraguay despite beating the United States.

Montella now faces the challenge of proving his side belong among Europe’s elite nations. Having guided Turkey through successive promotions to reach League A, survival is now the next objective.

Team News

The hosts have several key absences to overcome. Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz are both unavailable through injury, while Orkun Kokcu is still struggling with a toe problem.

Goalkeeper Altay Bayindir is expected to replace the suspended Cakir, while Merih Demiral should continue as captain. Much of Turkey’s creativity will once again come through Real Madrid playmaker Arda Guler.

Italy

Italy’s latest rebuilding project began in disappointing fashion as Roberto Mancini’s second spell in charge opened with defeat.

The former European Championship-winning coach returned to the national team following another World Cup qualification failure and immediately faced a stern test against Belgium. Unfortunately for the Azzurri, the performance failed to inspire confidence as they suffered a comfortable 2-0 defeat in Rome.

That result highlighted the scale of the task facing Mancini. Italy have now missed three consecutive World Cups and are attempting to regenerate the national team with a blend of experienced internationals and emerging talents.

Time is not on their side either. Following this trip to Turkey, tougher fixtures still await, including a demanding encounter with France.

Team News

The squad remains affected by injuries. Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante and Manuel Locatelli are all absent, although Alessandro Bastoni returns after suspension and should strengthen the defence in front of captain Gianluigi Donnarumma.

In attack, Mateo Retegui was not selected, leaving Moise Kean, Gianluca Scamacca, Sebastiano Esposito and Pio Esposito competing for starting places. The latter has already scored five goals in 10 international appearances and could be handed a prominent role.

Several newer faces are also pushing for opportunities, including Alessandro Romano and Brentford full-back Michael Kayode.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both nations lost their opening Nations League fixture.
• Turkey competed well against France before their goalkeeper’s red card changed the match.
• Italy suffered their first competitive defeat to Belgium since 1972.
• The hosts are without key attackers Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz.
• Roberto Mancini is overseeing the early stages of a major Italian rebuild.
• Arda Guler remains Turkey’s main creative outlet.

Conclusion

Turkey’s defeat to France was certainly more encouraging than Italy’s loss against Belgium. Montella’s side looked organised for long periods and demonstrated enough quality to suggest they can compete in League A.

Italy, by contrast, remain a work in progress. Mancini has inherited a squad short on confidence following another failed World Cup cycle, and the visitors may need time before his ideas begin to take shape.

Home advantage, greater continuity and a more coherent team structure could give Turkey the edge in what should be a closely-contested encounter. The hosts look capable of claiming their first ever League A victory and boosting their hopes of survival in the division.

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 8/5

Bookmaker: Bovada