While the first weekend of December is typically box office doldrums territory, Universal seemed to have postponed the lull for one week with the release of its beloved sequel Five Nights at Freddy’s 2. The sequel was tracking to debut in the $40 million-plus range, but fans took the box office by storm with an impressive $64 million debut.

Now this weekend will most certainly be the calm before the box office storm that is Disney’s juggernaut sequel Avatar: Fire & Ash. Director James Cameron’s sequel will hit theaters December 19, and was predicted by box office forecasters Cinelytic to be one of the biggest movies driving the fourth-quarter box office.

Only one film will debut in wide release — Disney’s political dramatic comedy Ella McCay — though it isn’t expected to make much of a dent at the box office this weekend. The latest film from writer-director James L. Brooks (As Good As It Gets, Broadcast News) is opening in roughly 2,500 theaters, but it won’t provide any serious competition this weekend.

Instead, it will be a weekend that will mark a duel between last weekend’s winner FNAF 2 and another blockbuster sequel, Disney’s Zootopia 2, each of which are tracking in the low $20 million range. While its predecessor suffered a huge second weekend drop, we’re predicting Five Nights At Freddy’s 2 will repeat with $29.7 million this weekend.

Five Nights At Freddy’s 2 Won’t Drop As Much As Its Predecessor

Universal and Blumhouse debuted Five Nights at Freddy’s in October 2023, making the controversial decision to release it simultaneously in theaters and on the studio’s Peacock streaming service. It was a gamble that paid off, because the film took in an impressive $291.5 million worldwide from just a $20 million budget, and it also became one of Peacock’s most-watched films.

Still, the film did suffer an enormous 76.2% drop in its second weekend — from the superb $80 million debut to a disastrous $19 million second frame. It was only in domestic theaters for eight weeks, but that was enough to secure a decent $137.2 million domestic haul, even with the option to stream the film at home.

The franchise has proved its box office drawing power once again with the sequel over-performing in its opening weekend, but the real test for box office strength could very well be with this second weekend. A minimal drop this weekend will help secure another $100 million domestic performance, with the sequel also budgeted at a modest $20 million.

While a third movie hasn’t been confirmed yet, a strong second weekend for FNAF 2 could very well be a deciding factor in Universal and Blumhouse forging ahead with this franchise. With Avatar: Ash & Fire looming large next weekend, this weekend is likely the sequel’s best and last chance to grab as much coin as possible before James Cameron’s threequel.

Zootopia 2 Will Hold Down the Second Spot Once Again

© Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection

Disney’s Zootopia 2 will most likely cross the $1 billion mark at some point over the weekend, and it wll easily clear its predecessor’s mark of $1.025 billion worldwide very soon. The sequel currently sits at $223.4 million domestic, with still a ways to go before passing Zootopia‘s domestic mark of $341.2 million.

However, the sequel has proven to be an even bigger hit overseas, with its $715 million tally already passing the original’s $648.2 million foreign haul in just two weeks, with its global total currently at $938.4 million. Last weekend it dropped 56.7% to second place with $43.4 million, following its $100.2 million opening.

The well-reviewed animated hit will shed another 50% or so from last weekend, for a third-frame tally of $21.6 million in second place, followed by Wicked: For Good in third place with $8.1 million and the anime film Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution dropping to fourth place with $5.2 million, with sole newcomer Ella McCay rounding out the top 5.

Ella McCay Will Stumble Into The Top 5 With a Lackluster Opening

Ella McCay marks the long-awaited return of writer-director James L. Brooks, with his first directorial effort in 15 years since 2010’s How Do You Know. The film follows Emma Mackey’s title character, a 34-year-old woman who becomes the governor of her home state, while juggling her personal and professional lives.

It also features a stellar supporting cast with Jamie Lee Curtis, Kumail Nanjiani, Woody Harrelson, Ayo Edebiri and Albert Brooks. However, it hasn’t gotten the warmest reception from the nation’s critics, with just a 30% rating on Rotten Tomatoes from the first 20 reviews. While certain films can overcome a poor critical showing, Ella McCay is eyeing a humdrum opening.

While it was made for a rather modest $35 million — the type of mid-budget movies that major studios rarely make anymore — it will still have quite the uphill climb to just break even, it seems. We’re putting it at number 4 with $3.2 million in fifth place for its debut.

Unless it proves to be a surprise hit overseas, or has some surprising “legs” in theaters, the dramatic comedy will be essentially dead on arrival. Take a look at our predicted Top 10 for the weekend of December 12-14 below.