Michael is prepared to go platinum at the box office.

The upcoming Michael, which is projected to have a strong debut when it arrives in theaters on April 24, is a biopic of “King of Pop” Michael Jackson that stars the late artist’s nephew Jaafar Jackson in the title role. The movie was directed by Antoine Fuqua and also stars Colman Domingo as Joe Jackson, Nia Long as Katherine Jackson, and Miles Teller as manager John Branca.

Per Deadline, early projections see Michael earning a 3-day opening weekend of between $55 and $60 million at the domestic box office. Even if it hits the lower bound of that range, it will set a major record, earning the second-best domestic debut for a music biopic in history, surpassing the 2018 Freddie Mercury biopic Bohemian Rhapsody, which debuted with $51.5 million before going on to become the highest-grossing music biopic in history with a cumulative $910.8 million worldwide.

The current record-holder is 2015’s Straight Outta Compton with $60.2 million. It remains to be seen if Michael, which is Jaafar Jackson’s feature debut, is able to outgross either Bohemian Rhapsody or Straight Outta Compton in the long run. The 2018 feature, which won four Oscars (including Best Actor, for Rami Malek), was a major outlier for the genre. While it earned nearly $1 billion, it grossed $622 million more than the next highest-grossing music biopic, which was the Austin Butler-led hit Elvis.

Below, see a breakdown of the box office performance of the five highest-grossing music biopics of all time:

If Michael debuts with $60 million and has the same momentum as Bohemian Rhapsody (which had a sophomore weekend drop of just 38.9%, compared to Straight Outta Compton‘s 56.2%), it could potentially earn more than $1 billion worldwide by the end of its run, becoming the first music biopic to ever hit that huge milestone.

That total would see the movie more than earning back its huge reported budget of $155 million. However, it does not necessarily need to earn nearly that much. Ultimately, the movie’s estimated break-even point is unknown, because it is a Lionsgate production. The studio typically offsets the majority of their production costs with international pre-sales, so the typical rule of thumb for a studio feature needing to earn back two and a half times its production budget does not apply.

Regardless, it seems like there is widespread enthusiasm for the movie, which will feature a wide selection of Michael Jackson music, including his No. 1 hits “Bad,” “Billie Jean,” and “Beat It.” However, the project comes laden with controversy that could prevent it from achieving the box office heights that it could have otherwise.

Michael has already faced criticism for its portrayal of the iconic pop artist, who was accused of child sexual abuse after his death in 2009, as showcased in the 2019 documentary Leaving Neverland. While the exact degree to which the allegations are covered or alluded to in the movie is currently unknown, Jackson’s daughter Paris called an early draft of the script “sugar-coated” on Instagram in September 2025. Should the movie live up to her assessment, the subsequent controversy has the potential to derail its box office run and prevent it from reaching the heights of Bohemian Rhapsody.

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