Gasperini insists Serie A top-four race will not be decided by Roma-Juventus matchup


Gian Piero Gasperini insists Sunday’s head-to-head clash between Roma and Juventus will not decide anything in the race to make Serie A’s top four.

The Giallorossi currently sit fourth in Serie A, only behind third-placed Napoli due to their head-to-head record, but with a four-point lead over Juventus in fifth.

Luciano Spalletti’s team have suffered back-to-back defeats in league play, against Inter and Como, as well as exiting the Champions League with a 7-5 aggregate loss to Galatasaray.

Juventus are reportedly weighing up Spalletti’s future at the Allianz Stadium, and a Roma win on Sunday would represent another major blow to the Turin giants.

But Gasperini is not thinking that way, saying his only goal is for Roma to still be in contention when the closing weeks of the season arrive.

“I think the four points are significant for the path Roma have taken, but they are not decisive for the final standings,” Gasperini said on Saturday.

“They do not decide anything definitively. I think this is a race that will be decided much later. We need to get a result and stay in the race.

“As I have already said other times, we hope to be able to play for everything in the last few days, because that would mean that we are still in the fight.”

The Opta supercomputer currently assigns Roma a 58.6% chance of making the top four, with Juve’s hopes sitting at 31.4%.

Como and Atalanta are also in the mix, and Gasperini feels more points may be needed for Champions League qualification than usual, with Italy’s hopes of getting an extra fifth spot appearing slim.

“I don’t know, usually it was 70 to 72 points, maybe now it’s even more,” Gasperini said.

“Last year, there were many teams involved: there was Roma, there was Milan, there was Lazio. In short, the group was much larger.

“This year, maybe Bologna fell away earlier, Lazio fell away earlier, and the situation has changed.

“As I said before, right now it is huge if you manage to make a break with a series of consecutive victories. A positive streak can give you an important advantage and allow you to take advantage of the others.”

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Roma – Donyell Malen

Since his Serie A debut on matchday 21, Roma forward Malen has scored more goals (five), attempted more shots (30) and had more touches in the opposition box (63) than any other player in the competition.

Juventus – Kenan Yildiz

Roma are the team that Yildiz has played the most minutes against in Serie A (335), but he is yet to score versus the Giallorossi.

However, the Juventus forward has scored eight goals in the top-flight this season, with Roberto Bettega (13, in 1970-71) being the last player to score more in a single Serie A campaign for the Bianconeri before turning 21 years old.

MATCH PREDICTION – DRAW

Juventus have remained unbeaten in 10 of their last 11 Serie A meetings with Roma (W5 D5), but they have only won once in the last four clashes between the teams (D3).

The Bianconeri triumphed 2-1 in the reverse fixture, with goals from Francisco Conceicao and Lois Openda (Tommaso Baldanzi scored for Roma).

At the Stadio Olimpico, Roma have won just one of their last six Serie A matches against Juventus (W1 D3 L2), after winning three of the previous four (W3 D1).

Furthermore, after 1-1 draws in May 2024 and April 2025, the Giallorossi could record three consecutive home draws against the Bianconeri in the competition for the first time since 2000 to 2002.

It would be no surprise if the points are shared again on Sunday. Juventus have not won any of their last three Serie A matches (D1 L2), after winning seven of their previous nine (D1 L1).

And Roma have gained the fewest points (two) in direct encounters among the current top five teams in Serie A this season. Juventus, by contrast, have collected 10.

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Roma – 36.8%

Juventus – 34.1%

Draw – 29.1%





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