The stage is set at the Pallekele International Cricket Stadium for a high-stakes encounter as Pakistan take on Sri Lanka in their final Super 8 fixture of the T20 World Cup 2026. While Sri Lanka have already been eliminated from the race following consecutive defeats, this match is a do-or-die “virtual quarter-final” for the Men in Green. Thanks to England’s victory over New Zealand earlier, Pakistan have been handed a narrow lifeline. However, to snatch the semi-final spot from the Kiwis, Salman Agha’s side must not only win but do so by a massive margin to overhaul their Net Run Rate (NRR).

Why Babar Azam and Kusal Mendis are not playing today’s game

Sri Lankan captain Dasun Shanaka confirmed that star wicketkeeper-batter Kusal Mendis has been ruled out of the clash. Mendis reportedly pulled out due to an injury, later identified as hamstring stiffness sustained during their previous outing. With Sri Lanka already out of the tournament, the team management opted not to risk their premier opener, bringing in Kamil Mishara as his replacement. Additionally, Janith Liyanage has replaced Dushan Hemantha to bolster the middle order.

In a tactical move that has sparked intense debate, Pakistan captain Agha confirmed that Babar Azam is not part of the playing XI today. While no specific injury was cited, reports suggest Babar has been dropped following a string of underwhelming performances, having managed only 91 runs across the tournament. Joining him on the sidelines are Saim Ayub and Salman Mirza. To inject fresh energy into a must-win game, Pakistan has roped in the explosive Khawaja Nafay, along with pace spearhead Naseem Shah and mystery spinner Abrar Ahmed.

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The road to the semi-finals: How Pakistan can qualify

Pakistan’s equation is mathematically simple but physically daunting. To surpass New Zealand’s NRR of +1.390, they must achieve one of the following scenarios:

If Pakistan bats first: They must win by a margin of at least 64 to 65 runs (assuming a baseline score of 160).

If Pakistan bowls first: Should Sri Lanka set a target (e.g., 161), Pakistan must chase it down in 12.4 overs or fewer to secure their passage to the knockouts.

While Pakistan previously recorded a 102-run victory against Namibia in the group stages, replicating such dominance against a wounded Sri Lankan side on a tricky Pallekele surface remains a monumental task. If they fail to meet these margins, New Zealand will officially join England as the second semi-finalist from Group 2.

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