Verdict: Draw

Best odds: 14/5

Bookmaker: Olympusbet

Benfica welcome Real Madrid to the Estádio da Luz on Tuesday evening for the first leg of their Champions League playoff tie—a fixture already charged with intrigue following the Portuguese side’s remarkable 4-2 victory in the league phase.

With both teams entering the knockout rounds in contrasting form, the stage is set for a captivating showdown in Lisbon.

Benfica

Benfica only clinched their playoff spot on the final matchday, finishing 24th and advancing on goal difference. Their decisive moment, of course, was the stunning 4-2 win over Real Madrid—a result that ensured qualification and served as the defining highlight of their campaign.

Across the eight league‑phase fixtures, Benfica managed three wins and five defeats, an inconsistent stretch but one that ultimately proved enough to survive. Under José Mourinho, however, the Eagles have rediscovered resilience and rhythm. They have won four of their last five matches across all competitions, with one draw completing a strong recent run.

Their latest performance—a hard-fought 2-1 victory away to Santa Clara—reinforced their growing confidence. Their form at the Estádio da Luz has also been crucial, with Benfica consistently proving dangerous on home turf. That strength could be decisive against a Real Madrid side that has shown weaknesses on the road in European competition.

During the Champions League league phase, Benfica scored 10 goals and conceded 12—a reflection of their ability to attack with purpose yet their struggle to maintain defensive stability. Notably, each of their last five matches in the competition produced a decisive outcome: three wins and two defeats, underscoring their tendency to avoid stalemates.

The unforgettable 4-2 triumph over Madrid remains the emotional centrepiece of their European journey. Benfica exposed Madrid’s defensive vulnerabilities with clinical attacking sequences and will hope to harness that same intensity to gain an advantage before the return leg in Spain.

Team News

Alexander Bah is back in training after a long recovery from a cruciate ligament injury, though this match appears too early for his return. Samuel Soares is doubtful due to a muscle issue, while Fredrik Aursnes is set to miss out—an unwelcome blow. João Veloso remains uncertain, and although Richard Rios has resumed training after a dislocated shoulder, he is not expected to feature.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid arrive in Lisbon in strong domestic form, having won four of their last five matches in all competitions. Their latest outing—a commanding 4-1 win over Real Sociedad—featured a Vinícius Júnior brace and highlighted their attacking firepower.

However, their European campaign paints a more complex picture. Madrid collected 15 points from eight league‑phase matches, finishing ninth with five victories and three defeats. While they scored an impressive 21 goals, they conceded 12, revealing moments of defensive fragility.

Their last five Champions League fixtures produced two wins and three defeats—far from the consistency expected of a club with Madrid’s pedigree. The bruising 4-2 loss to Benfica in their previous encounter exposed organisational lapses and transitional problems that Alvaro Arbeloa must address.

Even so, Madrid’s superior attacking tools and overall depth remain undeniable strengths. Arbeloa’s side will be determined not to lose twice to Benfica in the same season and will likely adopt a more controlled, disciplined approach in this first leg, particularly given their recent struggles away from home.

With both teams boasting dangerous forwards and susceptible defences, another open and chaotic contest cannot be ruled out.

Team News

Kylian Mbappé sat out the win over Real Sociedad but has been declared fit by Arbeloa and could feature in Lisbon. Raúl Asencio is suspended after receiving a second yellow card in the previous meeting, while Rodrygo serves a two‑match UEFA ban following his red card.

Jude Bellingham is a major absentee due to a hamstring injury, and Eder Militão remains sidelined as he continues recovery from a tendon issue.

Head‑to‑Head

These sides produced one of the league‑phase’s most memorable encounters, with Benfica’s 4-2 victory turning the standings upside down. Historically, Madrid have often been the stronger of the two, but Benfica’s recent win and their excellent European home form add significant intrigue.

Matches between these clubs tend to feature goals, momentum swings and high‑tempo football—qualities likely to resurface on Tuesday.

Conclusion

The last meeting showed how quickly this fixture can erupt into end‑to‑end chaos, but Real Madrid are expected to adopt a more measured and disciplined approach this time. European nights like this often hinge on experience, composure and clinical finishing—areas where Madrid traditionally excel.

If Benfica repeat their previous intensity, they can trouble Los Blancos again. But given the stakes, Madrid’s pedigree in high‑pressure knockout ties gives them the edge to seize control and capitalize on any defensive lapses.

It is, nonetheless, very likely that the tie gets resolved in the Spanish capital next week.

Verdict: Draw

Best odds: 14/5

Bookmaker: Olympusbet